In this episode of "In the Interim…", Dr. Scott Berry shares the framework he presented at a CSRC regulatory science hackathon on digital twins and synthetic controls in cardiovascular clinical trials. He separates three kinds of models that are often given the same name: population-level statistical models (a historical control rate), patient-level statistical models (propensity matching, Cox models, hot-deck imputation, and black-box machine learning predictions), and system-level digital twins of human biology. Drawing on ARPA-H's CIRCLE program for ICU immune modulation, the Framingham risk model, the EMA-qualified use of AI-generated prognostic scores as covariates, and Novartis's recent Lp(a) outcomes trial, Scott examines what each type of model can and cannot replace in a trial. Dr. Berry argues that virtual controls should provide a full predictive distribution for each patient rather than a single forecast, and that Bayesian hierarchical models with prospectively enrolled controls allow a trial to verify those predictions as it runs. He closes with how much smaller trials could become, and why clinical trial science must adapt as natural history models improve. Key Highlights Reserving "digital twin" for system-level models of biology, not statistical predictions such as the Framingham risk model. ARPA-H's CIRCLE program: immune-system digital twins to guide ICU therapy, targeting a 25% reduction in ICU stay. Why a validated system-level digital twin would remove the need for a clinical trial. Prognostic scores as covariates versus virtual controls, and the counterfactual a control group is meant to supply. From a single historical control rate to patient-specific predictions built on patient-level data. Predictive distributions, not point forecasts, as the basis for comparing treated patients with virtual controls. Bayesian hierarchical models, MAP priors, and prospective controls to verify and calibrate virtual controls during the trial. For more, visit us at https://www.berryconsultants.com

The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates for the first time in years, and the headline matters well beyond Wall Street. In this episode of AWM Insights, Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna explain why the Fed hit the brakes, what a quarter-point hike means for anyone borrowing to buy a home, and why the Fed can't fix every driver of inflation, from oil prices to conflict overseas. Then they turn to what matters most for investors: how rate moves hit portfolios. Using a boat, a water level and an anchor, they show why savers can come out ahead when rates rise, why one-size-fits-all bond allocations can leave families exposed, and how shorter-term, liability-matched fixed income keeps a 100-year plan steady whether rates rise or fall. Connect With Us Call or text us: 626-862-0355 Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEA LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/ X: https://twitter.com/awmcapital Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/ Chapters 00:00 Preview: The speed limit, the water level and the anchor. 00:45 Why Interest Rates Matter: Why a topic that sounds dry affects everyone, and the Fed's first hike in years. 02:44 Why The Fed Raised Rates: Inflation, a quarter-point hike and lowering the economy's speed limit. 04:20 What Higher Rates Mean For You: Pricier borrowing, bigger mortgage payments and a more constrained buying pool. 05:38 Not A Perfect Machine: Oil prices, the Middle East and the limits of what the Fed can control. 07:05 Rates As The Water Level: Why rate moves barely change our decision-making, and why savers can come out ahead. 08:04 Too Much Interest Rate Exposure: How one-size-fits-all portfolios like 60/40 get hurt when rates rise, and why we favor shorter-term fixed income. 11:10 Fixed Income As The Anchor: Why the anchor has to be sized to the boat. 13:02 Don't Predict The Water Level: Forecasting rates versus immunizing portfolios. 14:35 Wrap-Up: Rates, the global economy and protecting the 1Hundred Year Family plan.

Every growing business moves along an S-curve: slow growth, dynamic growth, then a plateau. In this episode of Resilience Talk, I walk through the stages from zero to $500K to $1 million and beyond, why a business naturally falls back to the capabilities of its system, and why you can't build your $20 million company today. If you've been stuck at the same ceiling for a while, this is a framework for understanding why, and for deciding how to evolve. Connect with Paul Website: https://www.secondnature.solutions/ Subscribe to the newsletter: https://www.secondnature.solutions/join LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-spencer-7252118/ Chapters (00:00) Evolution and the S-curve (03:29) From zero to $1 million (09:36) Plateaus and falling back to your system (13:33) Why you can't skip to $20 million (17:09) Capacity planning and simplifying as you grow (21:11) Stop asking your team to pedal faster (25:04) Know your aim

On this week's episode: most people assume Microsoft's 2.44% tax rate means the game is rigged for billionaires, and never ask what the tax code has already built in for anyone willing to invest the same way. What the tax code already rewards: 1. Corporations pay a flat 21% tax rate — that's the rule. Microsoft backed into 2.44%, which means roughly $85 billion of its $101 billion in profit was offset by deductions and credits written directly into the tax code, available to any business that invests the way Microsoft does. 2. Buy $100,000 of office equipment and you write it off a little at a time over several years. Put that same $100,000 into qualifying AI data center property — or a rental property using the same bonus depreciation rules — and it's largely 100% deductible this year, against income you're already earning. 3. R&D tax credits aren't a deduction that lowers your taxable income — they're a dollar-for-dollar reduction of the tax you actually owe. Every dollar of W-2 wages paid to build genuinely new technology counts the same way for a five-person business as it does for Microsoft. 4. Most taxpayers don't lose out because the tax code is stacked against them — they lose out because they have a tax preparer instead of a tax strategist. The fix isn't a bigger tax bill, it's proactive planning before the year closes: we have clients landing at 0% and 2% effective tax rates using this exact playbook. Get in touch: https://www.revotaxpayer.com/?utm_source=revo-taxpayer&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=s4e30-get-tax-strategies-like-microsoft&utm_content=show-notes#contact-1 Connect With Us • Website: https://www.revotaxpayer.com/ • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/revotaxpayer/ • Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/revotaxpayer/ • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/revo-taxpayer-advocacy • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HiddenMoneyPodcast Chapters [00:00] Why "the rich don't pay their fair share" misses the real story [01:11] Microsoft reported $101B in profits and paid 2.44% in tax [02:46] The math: backing into $85B in deductions [03:19] These aren't loopholes — they're intentional tax incentives [03:39] Inside the strategy: AI data centers and 100% deductible property [05:12] R&D tax credits: a dollar-for-dollar reduction, not just a deduction [06:54] You don't have to be a corporation to use this playbook [10:01] Real clients getting to 0% tax — and how [11:01] A retired client's capital gains deferral through a rural opportunity zone [12:53] Tax preparer vs. tax strategist — the gap that costs people millions [13:44] These opportunities exist for every taxpayer, not just billionaires

On this episode of Wired In, KONTEK's Marques Manning unpacks why AV should always be the last trade into a construction project, and why KONTEK needs to be one of the first calls made in planning. He covers the physical and warranty risks of installing early, the four infrastructure conversations that protect a project's budget, and the three questions that set every schedule: what, where, and when. Connect with us Website: https://www.kontek.com/ Email: info@kontek.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/kontek-systems Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/konteksystems/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/konteksystems YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/KontekSystemsDurham Chapters [00:00] Introduction. [00:01] The go-last problem. [00:02] Furniture, dust, and warranties. [00:05] Change orders and "who owns it". [00:06] Getting KONTEK first in the room. [00:09] Delays that aren't your fault. [00:10] The four conversations, pathways, structural capacity, power, and environmental conditions. [00:13] The vacuum cleaner story. [00:16] Structural math. [00:20] What, where, when. The three questions that set every project's timeline. [00:22] Closing thoughts